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  #21  
Old 8th March 2013, 12:43 PM
Ron Conte Ron Conte is offline
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The liberals would also take into account that he is old, and would not reign for long.
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  #22  
Old 8th March 2013, 03:26 PM
St. Thomas More St. Thomas More is offline
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Default Turkson?

Do you think Cardinal Turkson could be the Black Pope?
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  #23  
Old 8th March 2013, 03:56 PM
Brother Brother is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by St. Thomas More View Post
Do you think Cardinal Turkson could be the Black Pope?

Here's Ron's answer to this question:

http://ronconte.wordpress.com/2013/0...kson-papabile/
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  #24  
Old 8th March 2013, 04:34 PM
Ron Conte Ron Conte is offline
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Cardinal Turkson is fairly liberal, as my article that Brother cites explains. He cannot be Peter the Roman, who (by his name) must be conservative and doctrinal. He is also much too young.

Don't be fooled by the commentary prior to the conclave. The saying is useful: he who enters the conclave as Pope, leaves as Cardinal. In other words, the Cardinals that are favored to be elected, often are not.
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  #25  
Old 9th March 2013, 05:03 AM
garabandalg garabandalg is offline
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Default this prediction of yours seems the strongest so far

Ron, for some reason, I feel that this prediction of yours is the most solid made so far. You may have hit this one spot on.
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  #26  
Old 9th March 2013, 12:13 PM
Ron Conte Ron Conte is offline
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Thanks.

Providence seems to favor a short conclave. The Cardinals have had several days of discussion, in preparation for voting. So votes may already be coalescing around a few candidates. Also, recent conclaves have been very short, around a couple of days.

Then there is the pressure to choose prior to holy week. We will have a new Pope soon.
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  #27  
Old 10th March 2013, 11:15 PM
Abba25 Abba25 is offline
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Default current odds in Vegas

Not to secularize the process, but wanted to show you what the world thinks and later we can compare it to the conclave election . Looks like Arinze is a long shot ...I always liked long shots...


Sun, Mar 10, 13 Spread Total
11:00p EDT

Who will be the next Pope?

Angelo Bagnasco (Italy) 10/1
Marc Ouellet (Canada) 8/1
Gianfranco Ravasi (Italy) 12/1
Leonardo Sandri (Argentina) 18/1
Angelo Scola (Italy) 5/2
Francis Arinze (Nigeria) 33/1
Peter Kodwo Appiah Turkson (Ghana)13/4
Christoph von Schonborn (Austria) 14/1
Tim Dolan (USA) 33/1
Tarcisio Bertone (Italy) 9/2
Jorge Mario Bergoglio (Argentina) 33/1
Odilo Pedro Scherer (Brazil) 7/1
Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga (Honduras) 33/1
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  #28  
Old 10th March 2013, 11:18 PM
Abba25 Abba25 is offline
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Default Relations

By the way...fyi...the Cardinal from Honduras is my wife's sisters husbands cousin...isn't that close enough to be considered family...
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  #29  
Old 11th March 2013, 03:15 AM
garabandalg garabandalg is offline
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Default Just noticed....

I know that there is another candidate with 33/1 odds, but Arinze has 33/1 odds which just happens to be Christ's age when crucified, is it not? ( 33 )
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  #30  
Old 11th March 2013, 12:03 PM
Ron Conte Ron Conte is offline
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Paddy Power has Arinze at 40:1. I think the odds are based on how people bet, so it functions like a poll. Few people think Arinze will be elected. But he was papabile in the last conclave.

The way the conclave voting works, there is an initial vote. It is very unlikely that a candidate will get 2/3rds (77/115) votes. But it allows electors to see which candidates might have a chance.

The candidates who have few votes initially may be abandoned in subsequent votes, as being unelectable. So their electors will pick a different candidate in subsequent voting, probably from one of the candidates who had a significant number of votes in the first round.

The problem occurs if two or three candidates have a significant group of electors supporting them. It is difficult to get to 2/3rds in that case.
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